OMP Sri Lanka

The historic decline of the Sri Lankan rupee against the US Dollar in 2022 marks a crisis. It fell 44.5% against the dollar by August 19, 2022. This drop came amid severe forex shortages and soaring inflation.

The US Dollar hit a high of Rs. 369 between March 7th and May 13th, 2022. This was a big jump from Rs. 304 on March 20th. By November 30th, the rupee had fallen to Rs. 329 against the dollar.

The rupee’s sharp drop of Rs 164.75 against the US Dollar has hurt the economy. It also fell against other major currencies during this time.

The rupee declined against the Indian rupee (40.5%), Euro (37.6%), and pound sterling (37.1%). It also dropped against the Japanese yen (34.3%). These drops made the economic crisis even worse.

Factors Contributing to the Sharp Depreciation of the Sri Lankan Rupee

The Sri Lankan Rupee plummeted against the US Dollar in 2022. Several factors led to this economic crisis. Forex market instability, rising import costs, and inflation put enormous pressure on the currency.

Economic Crisis and Forex Market Volatility

Sri Lanka’s economy faced numerous challenges before the 2022 crisis. The 2018 constitutional crisis and 2019 Easter Sunday attacks weakened the economy. COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 further destabilized it.

The Rupee lost 40% of its value against the dollar in just three months. This happened from February 2022 onwards. Real GDP shrank by 7.1% year-on-year in 2022’s first three quarters.

Surge in Import Costs and Inflation

Inflation, measured by the Colombo CPI (CCPI), hit 70% in September 2022. It slowed to 54% by January 2023. Rising import costs and currency devaluation heavily burdened businesses and consumers.

The exchange rate settled at about 360 Rupee/Dollar in May 2022. This was under the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s FX market guidance.

Year	Total Revenue	Tax Revenue	Total Expenditure and Net Lending	Overall Balance	Primary Balance
2022	2,012	1,751	4,473	-2,460	-895

US Dollar Strength and Currency Shortage

The strong US Dollar and low foreign currency reserves worsened the Rupee’s decline. Gross international reserves (GIR) were about $1.9 billion in December 2022.

The government’s decision to use up reserves before seeking IMF help fueled the economic crisis. This choice left the country with almost no reserves in early 2022.

Impact of the Rupee Depreciation on the Sri Lankan Economy

The Sri Lankan rupee’s sharp fall has shaken the country’s economy. It’s affected living costs, inflation, imports, and debt repayment. On June 20, the rupee hit Rs. 170.56 against the US dollar. This drop has worsened Sri Lanka’s economic troubles.

Rise in Cost of Living and Inflation

The weak rupee has made life costlier for Sri Lankans. In September 2022, inflation hit a record 69.8%. Food prices soared even higher, reaching 94.9%.

The National Consumer Price Index rose 58.9% in June 2022. Meanwhile, the Colombo Consumer Price Index jumped 60.8% in July 2022.

Challenges for Importers and Businesses

Sri Lankan importers and businesses face tough times. The weak rupee has made imports pricier. This hurts companies that rely on foreign goods and materials.

Consumers now pay more, while businesses earn less. Fuel price hikes have also increased the country’s oil import costs.

Strain on Foreign Debt Repayment

By March 2022, Sri Lanka’s government debt hit Rs. 21,696.6 billion. This was up from Rs. 17,589.4 billion in late 2021.

The falling rupee makes foreign debt repayment harder. The debt’s value in rupees has grown. This strains the country’s finances further. Sri Lanka’s external debt reached USD 37.5 billion in June 2024.

Sri Lankan Rupee Depreciates Sharply Against US Dollar in 2022

The Sri Lankan Rupee faced major challenges in 2022. It sharply depreciated against the US Dollar and other currencies. The Central Bank reported a 44.5% drop against the US Dollar by August 19, 2022.

This decline stemmed from the country’s economic crisis and forex market instability. The US Dollar’s overall strength also played a role.

Rupee Depreciation by 44.5% Against US Dollar in 2022

The Rupee hit an all-time low of 372.00 against the US Dollar in May 2022. This sharp fall had wide-reaching effects on Sri Lanka’s economy. It led to higher import costs, inflation, and strain on foreign debt repayment.

Businesses and individuals felt the impact too. Many Sri Lankans worried about the rising cost of living.

Cross Currency Exchange Rate Movements

The Rupee’s decline wasn’t limited to the US Dollar. It also fell against other major currencies during this time. The Central Bank reported drops against the Indian Rupee, Euro, Pound Sterling, and Japanese Yen.

These cross currency exchange rate movements further highlighted Sri Lanka’s economic struggles in 2022.

Currency	Depreciation (%)
US Dollar	44.5%
Indian Rupee	40.5%
Euro	37.6%
Pound Sterling	37.1%
Japanese Yen	34.3%

Conclusion

The Sri Lankan Rupee’s fall against the US Dollar in 2022 fueled the country’s economic crisis. Forex shortages, inflation, and currency movements caused this decline. This led to higher living costs and business challenges.

The crisis caused a 7.8% GDP drop in 2023. Hyperinflation hit 73% in September 2022. The government asked the IMF and World Bank for help to stabilize the economy.

Some positive signs emerged. Reserves grew to US$ 2.6 Billion in July 2023. The IMF approved a US$ 3 Billion bailout program. However, recovery will be slow and difficult.

Sri Lanka must focus on helping its most vulnerable citizens. It also needs to boost competitiveness and attract foreign investment. A well-planned approach is key to overcoming this crisis.

The IMF has given Sri Lanka a $2.9 billion IMF bailout. This will help the country recover from its worst money crisis in 70 years. The approval allows for an initial release of about $337 million.

Sri Lanka’s economy shows signs of recovery under the IMF program. Yet, it remains at risk. Achieving debt stability is still a tough challenge.

The bailout is crucial for managing Sri Lanka’s financial crisis. It will also help implement economic reforms. The funds will be provided in stages over four years.

Sri Lanka aims to restructure its $83.6 billion debt. This includes $41.5 billion in foreign debt and $42 billion in domestic debt. The country plans talks with the Paris Club, India, and China before meeting private creditors.

Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis and Need for IMF Assistance

Sri Lanka faces its worst financial crisis in recent history. Foreign exchange reserves hit record lows in 2022, leading to a default on its external debt. The economy shrank by 7.8% last year, causing severe shortages of essential goods.

Factors Contributing to Sri Lanka’s Financial Collapse

Several factors led to Sri Lanka’s financial collapse. These include a drop in foreign exchange reserves and heavy reliance on imports. The COVID-19 pandemic also caused a sharp decline in tourism revenue.

Sri Lanka’s debt burden is a major concern. External debt will reach USD 37.5 billion by June 2024, as noted in debt restructuring talks. Government efforts to address the crisis have sparked social unrest.

Inflation soared above 70%, while the Sri Lankan rupee hit record lows. These factors worsened the country’s economic troubles.

Impact of the Crisis on Sri Lankan Citizens

The economic contraction and shortages have deeply affected Sri Lankan citizens. Many struggle to afford basic necessities. Rising costs have pushed more people into poverty.

The crisis has also led to widespread job losses and business closures. These factors have added to the hardships faced by the population.

Year	Economic Growth	Inflation
2022	-7.8%	70%
2023 (projected)	-3.0%	25%

Sri Lanka has turned to the IMF program for help. The government has made tough spending cuts and raised taxes. These actions aim to secure a bailout and set the stage for recovery.

IMF Approves $2.9 Billion Bailout to Stabilize Sri Lankan Economy

The IMF has approved a $2.9 billion bailout package for Sri Lanka. This aims to stabilize the nation’s economy during its worst financial crisis in decades. The 48-month loan program tackles pressing economic challenges like soaring inflation and currency depreciation.

Key Elements of the IMF Bailout Package

The bailout focuses on restoring fiscal sustainability and implementing tax reforms. It also aims to enhance social spending to protect vulnerable citizens. The program targets a fiscal surplus of 2.3% of GDP by 2024.

This is a significant improvement from the projected 2022 deficit of 9.8%. The IMF stresses the importance of energy pricing reforms. It also emphasizes strengthening the central bank’s autonomy for data-driven monetary policy.

Conditions Attached to the IMF Assistance

Sri Lanka must secure financing assurances from major bilateral creditors like China, India, and Japan. This ensures debt restructuring and sustainability. The government has committed to implementing an anti-corruption legal framework.

They also aim to improve transparency in tax exemptions. These measures are crucial for restoring fiscal sustainability. They will also help attract private investments back into the country.

Expected Timeline for Disbursement of Funds

The IMF board approved the bailout on March 20. Sri Lanka is set to receive the first tranche of funds soon. As of June 2023, the IMF approved the second review of the bailout.

This brings the total funding to around $1 billion. Successful implementation of reforms could lead to additional funding. It may also attract support from international partners.

Key Economic Indicators	2022	2023 (Projected)
GDP Growth	-7.3%	-8.7%
Inflation Rate	70%	60%+
External Debt	$50 billion+	–

Reforms and Austerity Measures Required by the IMF

Sri Lanka must implement various fiscal reforms to secure the $2.9 billion IMF bailout approved in 2023. These measures aim to address the country’s economic crisis. In 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on $46 billion in foreign debt, causing shortages of essential goods.

Tax and Energy Pricing Reforms

The IMF requires raising taxes, such as increasing the value-added tax from 12% to 15%. The government must also reform energy pricing to align with market rates.

The goal is to boost revenue collection to 15% of GDP by 2025. Currently, it stands at 8%, among the lowest worldwide.

Efforts to Bolster Social Spending and Relief Programs

While implementing austerity measures, Sri Lanka must protect its most vulnerable citizens. The government needs to strengthen social spending and relief programs.

This is vital because the country’s poverty rate has doubled, according to the World Bank. Real wages remain significantly below pre-crisis levels.

Year	Inflation Rate	Debt-to-GDP Ratio
2022	60%	128%
2023	–	–
2028 (projected)	–	100%

Strengthening Anti-Corruption Legal Framework

Sri Lanka must bolster its anti-corruption legal framework to improve governance and transparency. This is crucial for effective implementation of IMF-mandated reforms.

Strengthening anti-corruption measures will help restore public trust in the government’s economic management abilities.

Conclusion

The IMF’s $2.9 billion bailout for Sri Lanka is a crucial step towards economic stability. This 48-month Extended Fund Facility aims to support Sri Lanka’s policies and reforms. It helps the nation recover from its worst financial crisis since independence.

The IMF assistance aims to restore financial stability and promote sustainable growth. It also protects vulnerable citizens. Success depends on effective reforms, international support, and political stability.

Sri Lanka has made progress, with inflation decreasing from 70% to below 2%. Gross international reserves have increased by $1.5 billion. However, revenue gains are falling short of initial projections by almost 15%.

Sustained efforts are needed to meet the IMF’s bailout terms. These include a ban on printing money and specific revenue targets. Sri Lanka must finalize its $41 billion external debt restructuring by mid-September.

The nation must stay committed to reform and sustainable growth. With international support and dedication, Sri Lanka can overcome challenges. This will help build a brighter future for its citizens.

Sri Lanka’s government has revealed its fiscal strategy for 2021-2025. The plan aims to tackle the growing deficit and stabilize public finance. The Medium Term Macro Fiscal Framework sets key goals for the country.

The strategy focuses on tax increases and reforms to boost government revenue. It aims to raise the revenue-to-GDP ratio to over 14% by 2025. This will be done through tax policy changes and improved revenue administration.

The government targets 6% economic growth and low unemployment. It also wants to keep inflation under 5%. Public investment will focus on vital infrastructure projects like roads and water supply.

Despite COVID-19 challenges, the government is committed to its fiscal strategy. The plan seeks to address the deficit and promote sustainable growth for Sri Lanka.

Government’s Fiscal Strategy for 2021-2025

Sri Lanka’s government has outlined its fiscal strategy for 2021-2025 in the Medium Term Macro Fiscal Framework (MTMFF). Key objectives include achieving a primary surplus by 2025 and reducing the budget deficit. The plan aims to cut unproductive spending and create a sustainable budget.

Medium Term Macro Fiscal Framework Objectives

The MTMFF focuses on reforming state-owned enterprises to boost efficiency. Qualified professionals will be appointed to management boards to improve productivity. These changes aim to reduce the burden on the government’s budget.

Public Investment Focus and Financing

Public investment will prioritize road projects and increase access to pipe-borne water. These investments will boost productivity in agriculture and industries. They’ll also improve citizens’ quality of life.

Domestic financing will cover 75% of public investment. This approach complements private sector investments and stimulates economic activity.

Rationalizing Recurrent Expenditure

The government plans to reduce recurrent expenditure from 14.2% of GDP in 2021 to 12.3% by 2025. This strategy includes freezing spending on vehicles, buildings, and other assets.

Digitalizing key systems like e-procurement and e-National Identity Card will boost efficiency. These measures will help streamline government operations and cut costs.

Government Implements Tax Hikes to Boost Revenue Amid Fiscal Deficit

Sri Lanka’s government has launched a plan to tackle the fiscal deficit. They’re using tax policy reforms and revenue administration to increase income. These changes aim to improve tax collection and support fiscal consolidation efforts.

Comprehensive Strategy Linking Tax Policy and Revenue Administration Reforms

The government has made several tax policy changes. These include raising the PAL rate and removing the NBT rate. They’ve also simplified the tax system to make it more efficient.

These reforms are paired with improvements in revenue administration. The goal is to make tax collection more effective. These measures are expected to boost revenue and support fiscal consolidation.

Simplification of the Taxation System

The government has made the tax system simpler and more user-friendly. They’ve cut down the number of taxes people need to pay. This includes removing taxes like NBT, PAYE, and WHT.

These changes should make it easier for people to pay their taxes. The government hopes this will lead to better compliance and more revenue.

Capacity Enhancing Measures in Revenue Administration

New measures have been put in place to improve tax collection. The Inland Revenue Department now has a Large Taxpayers Unit. They’ve also introduced risk-based audits and improved their information system.

Sri Lanka Customs has launched a Single Window System. They’re also working on a National Single Window platform. These changes aim to make trade easier and improve revenue collection.

Despite the economic crisis, the government is investing in education. They’ve set aside Rs. 465 billion for education in 2024. This shows their commitment to creating a better education system for all students.

These reforms and investments are part of a larger plan. The government hopes to improve the economy and promote long-term growth.

Conclusion

Sri Lanka’s government aims to tackle its fiscal deficit and boost economic stability. They’re focusing on tax reforms and better revenue collection to increase income. Simplifying taxes and improving administration should help achieve this goal. The strong performance of the Colombo Stock shows investor faith in the economy.

Expenditure management is crucial for fiscal consolidation. The government plans to cut recurring costs while investing in key sectors. This approach should optimize resources and support growth.

COVID-19 has created significant challenges for Sri Lanka’s fiscal targets. The pandemic caused job losses and economic shrinkage. Sri Lanka’s economy shrank by 7.8 percent in 2022 and 7.9 percent in early 2023.

Despite setbacks, the government remains committed to reforms. The IMF’s approval of a US$3 billion Extended Fund Facility demonstrates this commitment. Success depends on implementing reforms and managing debt restructuring effectively.

The government must stay alert and flexible to achieve its fiscal goals. By doing so, they can work towards sustainable economic growth in the coming years.

The Sri Lankan stock market bounced back strongly in early 2024. The All Share Price Index (ASPI) jumped by 15%. This surge shows growing investor trust in the country’s economic stability.

The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) saw busy trading days. Daily turnover ranged from Rs. 3.3 billion to Rs. 5.3 billion. Nine straight positive sessions highlighted the market’s strong performance.

The blue-chip S&P SL20 index also grew, rising 2.41% to 2,794.15 points. Better-than-expected company earnings fueled this growth. The nation’s economy looks promising, with GDP growth predicted to hit 2-3% by year-end.

Offboard deals on specific stocks made up 15% of total turnover. These deals involved companies like Watawala Plantations and Commercial Bank of Ceylon. This shows strong investor interest in these firms.

The bull market proves Sri Lanka’s economic resilience. It’s attracting both local and foreign investors. As the rally continues, it’s expected to boost overall economic growth.

Stock Market Recovers, ASPI Gains 15% in First Half of 2024

The Sri Lankan stock market has shown impressive growth in 2024’s first half. The All-Share Price Index (ASPI) jumped 15%, while the S&P 20 rose 19%. Lower inflation rates and interest rates have boosted investor confidence.

Inflation Eases and Interest Rates Decline, Boosting Investor Confidence

Falling inflation and interest rates have fueled the stock market’s recovery. Investors now feel more optimistic about listed companies’ future. Quarterly interest costs for core companies have dropped significantly since 2020.

Foreign Inflows Contribute to Market Rally

Foreign portfolio investment has driven the market rally. As the economy improves, foreign investors have become net buyers. Completing external debt restructuring is vital for market sentiment.

Sticking to the IMF reform program is crucial for sustained growth. Any deviation may create uncertainty and discourage foreign investor participation.

Key Sectors Like Capital Goods and Diversified Financials Lead the Surge

Capital Goods and Diversified Financials sectors are leading the market recovery. These companies have reported strong earnings growth and improved profitability. The banking sector is expected to see a re-rating.

Core earnings will be driven by loan growth amid positive GDP expectations. Non-Banking Financial Institutions should benefit from the current declining interest rate cycle.

Sector	Allocation
Banks/NBFI	30%
Conglomerates	25%
Manufacturing	20%
Consumer	15%
Leisure	10%

Increased trading volume and investor participation have supported market growth. Small to mid-cap companies may outperform large caps due to falling fixed-income yields. CSE earnings are expected to grow by 15.0% in 2024.

The ASPI target is set at 13,800 levels by year-end. The Sri Lankan stock market is ready for further growth and recovery.

Factors Driving the Bull Market

Sri Lanka’s stock market bull run stems from improved economic outlook and investor sentiment. Successful debt restructuring talks led to an IMF agreement for a $2.90 billion Extended Fund Facility. This boosted investor confidence, showing the government’s commitment to economic reforms.

Government reforms and the IMF program have stabilized the macroeconomic environment. Inflation dropped to about 35% in April 2023 from over 70%. Market-based pricing for fuel and cooking gas has aided the economic turnaround.

Sri Lanka has made progress in overcoming its economic crisis. The tourism sector’s rebound has been a key factor in 2023’s economic growth.

Lower Inflation and Interest Rates Spark Multiple Expansion for Equities

Falling inflation and interest rates have fueled the Sri Lankan stock market bull run. Inflation is expected to hit single digits by Q3 2023. This has made investors more optimistic about the country’s economic future.

Lower interest rates have led to higher stock prices. Investors are willing to pay more due to improved earnings visibility. The Sri Lankan Rupee gained about 10% in February 2023 alone.

Successful Debt Restructuring Negotiations Improve Economic Outlook

Debt restructuring talks have been a game-changer for Sri Lanka’s economy. Foreign debt was 55% of total debt in early 2022. The IMF agreement and fiscal plans have greatly improved the economic outlook.

This has boosted various sectors, like Financial Services and Leisure. Maldivian Resorts and Colombo Hotels have performed well. The Group’s Bunkering business has seen higher profits from fuel prices and volumes.

Government Reforms and IMF Extended Fund Facility Program Support Recovery

Government reforms and the IMF program provide a strong base for Sri Lanka’s recovery. These measures address macroeconomic imbalances and set the stage for future growth. The Group reported 17% EBITDA growth to Rs.45.74 billion despite challenges.

The Supermarket business showed resilience with 45% EBITDA growth to Rs.7.46 billion. Ongoing reforms and fiscal discipline are expected to brighten economic prospects. This provides a solid foundation for the continuing bull market in Sri Lankan stocks.

Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves have bounced back to $5.5 billion by April 2024. This signals a positive trend for the nation’s economic stabilization efforts. The recovery in currency reserves is expected to boost the country’s financial stability.

The World Bank and Asian Development Bank predict positive growth for Sri Lanka in 2024. They project a moderately optimistic outlook over the medium term. The current account may show a slight surplus.

This surplus is likely due to controlled import growth. The revival of tourism and remittances inflows also plays a key role. These factors are vital for strengthening foreign reserves and improving import coverage.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has supported Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. Their Extended Fund Facility has helped build up foreign reserves. The government’s debt restructuring efforts have also been crucial.

These actions have created a more stable financial environment. They have boosted confidence among investors and international partners.

Economic Recovery and Stabilization

Sri Lanka’s economy is showing signs of recovery. GDP growth is projected to turn positive in 2024. The World Bank forecasts a 2.2% growth rate for 2024.

This recovery is backed by the IMF’s $2.9 billion bailout package. The package aims to stabilize the economy and promote reforms.

Inflation Expected to Remain Benign in Medium Term

Inflation in Sri Lanka has dropped significantly. Year-on-year headline inflation fell to 1.3% in September 2023. It rose to 4.0% by the end of 2023 due to supply factors.

Core inflation also decreased, showing low demand pressures. Inflation may change due to new VAT rules in January 2024. However, it should stay low as demand remains weak.

Current Account Surplus Driven by Tourism and Remittances

Sri Lanka’s current account surplus is growing. This is due to strong tourism and remittance inflows. Tourism arrivals topped 700,000 in the first 14 weeks of 2024.

Remittances increased to $572 million in March 2024. These inflows are vital for the country’s balance of payments and foreign reserves.

The boost in tourism and remittances helps offset the economic damage. The long crisis has hurt household finances and business activity. As the economy stabilizes, confidence is expected to grow.

Indicator	2023	2024 (Projected)
GDP Growth	-3.5%	2.2%
Inflation (Year-end)	4.0%	4.5%
Tourism Arrivals (Jan-Mar)	270,000	700,000
Remittances (March)	$475 million	$572 million

Foreign Reserves Rebound to $5.5 Billion by April 2024

Sri Lanka’s official reserves have shown a remarkable recovery. They rose from $1.9 billion in late 2022 to $5.5 billion by April 2024. This excludes a swap facility from the People’s Bank of China.

The IMF Extended Fund Facility of $2.9 billion has played a key role. Approved in March 2023, it has greatly boosted the country’s reserve position.

Improved Balance of Payments Position

Sri Lanka faces a growing trade deficit due to rising import spending. However, net inflows from the services sector, especially tourism, have helped offset this.

A new e-visa system and the Pekoe Trail are set to boost tourism. These initiatives, backed by the EU and USAID, should improve the balance of payments.

IMF Extended Fund Facility Supporting Reserve Buildup

The IMF Extended Fund Facility has been crucial for Sri Lanka’s reserve buildup. The country’s commitment to economic reforms has secured this vital support.

Sri Lanka continues to work with the IMF and other partners. This collaboration is expected to strengthen its reserve position and enhance economic stability.

Debt Restructuring Efforts Paving Way for Financial Stability

Sri Lanka is negotiating debt restructuring with international bondholders. These talks are key to restoring debt sustainability and regaining market access.

The government is working hard to reach agreements with creditors. These efforts are creating a better environment for economic growth and investment.

Indicator	Value
Foreign Reserves (April 2024)	$5.5 billion
IMF Extended Fund Facility	$2.9 billion
GDP Growth Forecast (2024)	2.6%

Conclusion

Sri Lanka’s economy is looking up. Foreign reserves are expected to reach $5.5 billion by April 2024. This signals a positive shift in the nation’s economic outlook.

The country’s GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been revised to 2.6%. This contributes to the South Asian subregion’s expansion. The subregion is projected to grow by 6.3% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025.

However, risks remain. These include the need for deep debt restructuring and potential reform fatigue. Upcoming elections and the recent economic crisis also pose challenges.

These risks are high in Sri Lanka and other South Asian economies. They face high public debt, weak external reserves, and geopolitical tensions.

Implementing the IMF’s structural reform program is crucial. It will boost investor confidence and attract fresh capital inflows. This will support a stronger economic recovery in the medium term.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has kept the policy rate at 6 percent. Their medium-term inflation target is 5 percent. Private sector credit growth and lower non-performing loans show a stabilizing financial sector.

The current account deficit is narrowing. Foreign exchange reserves now cover over 4 months of projected imports. Sri Lanka’s economic prospects are improving, despite challenges on the road to recovery.